Where the model
meets the market.
First Pitch is a daily MLB starting-pitcher analyst. Every morning it locks an XGBoost win probability for each matchup, measures it against live Polymarket prices, and flags exactly where the market is wrong.
Read-only · No wagers placed · Phase I
"Skubal's swinging-strike rate against right-handed bats has outrun the price the market is setting tonight."
First Pitch is an analyst's desk, not a sportsbook. It turns each day's starting-pitcher matchups into measured probabilities, holds those predictions accountable, and builds a verifiable track record over time — all before a single dollar is ever at risk. Phase I is deliberately read-only: the job right now is to prove the model, in public.
Four ways it earns trust.
Model vs. Market
An XGBoost win-probability model is measured against live Polymarket moneylines. Disagreements of 5% or more are flagged as edges.
AI scouting reports
Every matchup gets a plain-English writeup — what the numbers say and why the edge exists — so the read takes seconds, not spreadsheets.
Proven track record
Every pick is logged and scored — Brier score, log-loss, and a published calibration curve. No cherry-picking; the whole record stays on the table.
My Desk
Star the pitchers you follow, track the bets you're watching, and tune your edge threshold — your dispatch, your way.
Three steps, every morning.
Lock the probability
The model sets a win probability for every starting-pitcher matchup and locks it before first pitch.
Measure the market
That number is compared to the live Polymarket price to surface the day's edges — where the model and the market disagree.
Settle the record
Results settle automatically and feed a public calibration record, so the model is judged on outcomes, not opinions.
Judged on outcomes.
Illustrative sample — your live dispatch shows the current season's record.
Read today's dispatch.
Free while we're in Phase I. No wagers, no card — just the model, the market, and the record between them.
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